Guide
Runway without a fake bridge
Runway is the number executives quote most often and verify least. "We have 18 months" usually means current cash divided by this month's burn, with an unstated assumption that revenue grows on plan and costs don't. When the assumption breaks, the runway was never 18 months.
ExecMind's Quant instrument treats runway, and the numbers around it, as expressions with named variables, not headlines.
What Quant covers
ARR, reprice, margin, cash and runway. Variables are named, gaps are named, and there's no invented elasticity. Quant sits beside the file and doesn't replace the conversation.
The rule that matters
If revenue doesn't have an explicit bridge to burn, Quant writes that the runway is not demonstrated, and stops. It won't fill the bridge with a growth rate that sounds reasonable.
A runway expression you can use
Runway (months) = Cash₀ ÷ Net burn
Net burn = Gross burn − Revenue collected
Revenue_t = ARR₀ ÷ 12 × (1 + g)^t × collection rate
Gross burn_t = Costs₀ × (1 + c)^t + committed step costs
Required inputs: Cash₀ · ARR₀ · g · collection rate · Costs₀ · c · step costs
If g has no basis (pipeline, contracted bookings): RUNWAY NOT DEMONSTRATED
The last line is what most runway slides leave out.
Worked example (fictional)
Known: cash of $6.0m (bank, 30 June). ARR₀ of $4.8m (billing system). Gross burn of $750k a month (management accounts). Assumption: ARR grows 4% a month. The source is the plan, and there is no contracted pipeline in the file. Derived: with 4% growth, runway is about 14 months. With 0% growth, net burn is $350k a month and runway is about 17 months. Record: the plan's growth rate doesn't change runway much here. Burn does. The most useful next input is committed hiring.
The point isn't the answer. It's that the record shows which input actually matters.
Pricing changes
The same discipline applies to a price change. Put ARR₀ and the expected volume response on Quant. If churn is missing, the desk won't fill it in.
When to use CFO Sentinel instead
For a full financial file, such as three-statement models, trial balances, facility agreements or covenants, use CFO Sentinel, the FIA Labs finance desk. ExecMind is for the decision built on top. With an FIA Plan seat, you can send CFO Sentinel an FIA Brief and read the reply.
Questions to ask of any runway figure
Which growth rate does it assume, and where does that come from? Are committed hires and step costs included? Is revenue booked or collected? If the answers aren't on the page, the runway is a hope, not a figure.
Questions
How do you calculate runway?
Cash divided by net monthly burn, provided the revenue and cost assumptions behind burn are stated. Quant names each variable.
Will ExecMind estimate churn or price elasticity for me?
No. Missing inputs stay missing, and the desk names the gap.
What does 'runway not demonstrated' mean?
That revenue has no explicit bridge to burn in the file, so a runway figure would rest on an invented growth rate.